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Dila vs Gagra Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Dila

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

UPCOMING

Gagra

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 54% chance

Combined xG of 2.2 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-18.9%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.4%1-112.4%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-18.7%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.0%3-14.0%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 60.6% 1.65 -18.3%

Draw 26.3% 27.8% 3.60 -3.2%

Away win 24.2% 23.1% 4.33 +2.9%

Over 2.5 50.4% 55.6% 1.80 -9.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 34.2% 2.92 -9.7%

BTTS 50.0% 56.8% 1.76 -12.0%

Home O1.5 39.7% 58.5% 1.71 -32.1%

Away O1.5 23.5% 27.3% 3.66 -8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.0%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 12.4%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dila1.4

Gagra0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DILA · PPG 1.50

GAGRA · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dila (H) 49.5%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -18.3%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.2%

Gagra (A) 24.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dila face Gagra in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dila a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Gagra 24%, so Dila are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dila and 0.8 for Gagra (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dila are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.18 for Gagra. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.7%.

Dila vs Gagra Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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