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Rustavi vs Dinamo Batumi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 24 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:00

Rustavi

PPG 2.45 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWD

UPCOMING

Dinamo Batumi

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-18.0%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.3%1-112.1%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.3%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.2%3-14.7%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 45.5% 2.20 +3.2%

Draw 25.4% 34.5% 2.90 -15.8%

Away win 27.8% 33.3% 3.00 -10.0%

Over 2.5 50.6% 51.3% 1.95 -1.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.2% 3.42 -1.1%

BTTS 52.9% 57.1% 1.75 -7.4%

Home O1.5 40.6% 46.5% 2.15 -12.7%

Away O1.5 26.1% 36.2% 2.76 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 47% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 2–0 10.2%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rustavi1.5

Dinamo Batumi0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RUSTAVI · PPG 2.45

DINAMO BATUMI · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rustavi (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +3.2%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -15.8%

Dinamo Batumi (A) 27.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rustavi face Dinamo Batumi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rustavi a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Dinamo Batumi 28%, so Rustavi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Rustavi and 0.9 for Dinamo Batumi (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rustavi are averaging 2.45 points per game versus 1.33 for Dinamo Batumi. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +7.1%.

Rustavi vs Dinamo Batumi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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