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Aragvi Dusheti vs Shturmi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:00

Aragvi Dusheti

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

UPCOMING

Shturmi

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.6%0-112.0%0-24.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.9%1-113.1%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.2%2-17.1%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.3%3-12.6%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 41.7% 2.40 +6.8%

Draw 31.6% 30.8% 3.25 +2.7%

Away win 23.9% 39.2% 2.55 -23.4%

Over 2.5 38.8% 47.6% 2.10 -18.5%

Over 3.5 18.5% 28.6% 3.50 -21.1%

BTTS 45.6% 55.6% 1.80 -17.9%

Home O1.5 30.8% 40.0% 2.50 -23.0%

Away O1.5 21.6% 38.5% 2.60 -26.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 30.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.6%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.9%

#2 0–0 15.6%

#3 1–1 13.1%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aragvi Dusheti1.1

Shturmi0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAGVI DUSHETI · PPG 2.00

SHTURMI · PPG 1.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

46%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.32, combined xG 1.86 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aragvi Dusheti (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +6.8%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +2.7%

Shturmi (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aragvi Dusheti face Shturmi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aragvi Dusheti a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Shturmi 24%, so Aragvi Dusheti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Aragvi Dusheti and 0.8 for Shturmi (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aragvi Dusheti are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.17 for Shturmi.

Aragvi Dusheti vs Shturmi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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