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Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:00

Torpedo Kutaisi

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDL

UPCOMING

Dinamo Tbilisi

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 62.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.8%0-25.3%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.6%1-111.7%1-27.9%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-18.8%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.2%3-14.4%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 44.4% 2.25 -5.9%

Draw 23.5% 30.3% 3.30 -13.5%

Away win 34.7% 38.2% 2.62 -9.1%

Over 2.5 59.6% 54.1% 1.85 +10.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 35.3% 2.83 +3.0%

BTTS 61.5% 62.1% 1.61 -1.0%

Home O1.5 39.9% 45.7% 2.19 -12.6%

Away O1.5 42.2% 43.7% 2.29 -3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torpedo Kutaisi1.5

Dinamo Tbilisi1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TORPEDO KUTAISI · PPG 1.50

DINAMO TBILISI · PPG 1.90

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Torpedo Kutaisi (H) 41.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -5.9%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.5%

Dinamo Tbilisi (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torpedo Kutaisi face Dinamo Tbilisi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torpedo Kutaisi a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Dinamo Tbilisi 35%, so Torpedo Kutaisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Torpedo Kutaisi and 1.4 for Dinamo Tbilisi (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torpedo Kutaisi are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.90 for Dinamo Tbilisi. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.3%.

Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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