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Meshakhte vs Spaeri Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Meshakhte

PPG 0.45 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

UPCOMING

Spaeri

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-113.1%0-29.3%0-34.4%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.9%1-112.6%1-29.0%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.3%2-16.1%2-24.3%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.4%3-11.9%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.3% 32.3% 3.10 -6.1%

Draw 25.9% 32.3% 3.10 -11.8%

Away win 43.8% 48.8% 2.05 -10.2%

Over 2.5 50.6% 52.6% 1.90 -3.9%

Over 3.5 29.6% 31.8% 3.14 -4.2%

BTTS 52.9% 57.8% 1.73 -8.5%

Home O1.5 30.8% 38.3% 2.61 -19.6%

Away O1.5 42.2% 49.5% 2.02 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.9%

A 44% / xG 1.0-1.4 / U2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 0–2 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Meshakhte1.0

Spaeri1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MESHAKHTE · PPG 0.45

SPAERI · PPG 0.92

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

56%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.46, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Meshakhte (H) 30.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.1%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.8%

Spaeri (A) 43.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Meshakhte face Spaeri in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Meshakhte a 30% chance, the draw 26% and Spaeri 44%, so Spaeri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Meshakhte and 1.4 for Spaeri (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Meshakhte are averaging 0.45 points per game versus 0.92 for Spaeri.

Meshakhte vs Spaeri Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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