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FC Iberia 1999 vs Samgurali Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

FC Iberia 1999

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Samgurali

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+13.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.8%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.1%1-19.8%1-25.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.3%3-16.7%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-15.5%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 57.1% 1.75 -5.3%

Draw 22.0% 27.8% 3.60 -12.5%

Away win 23.9% 25.6% 3.90 -4.1%

Over 2.5 63.2% 55.6% 1.80 +13.8%

Over 3.5 40.2% 36.5% 2.74 +10.2%

BTTS 61.5% 59.9% 1.67 +2.7%

Home O1.5 57.5% 57.5% 1.74 +0.1%

Away O1.5 32.5% 32.3% 3.10 +0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 26.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.5%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1✓ 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 1–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Iberia 19992.0

Samgurali1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC IBERIA 1999 · PPG 1.90

SAMGURALI · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Iberia 1999 (H) 54.1%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -5.3%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.5%

Samgurali (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Iberia 1999 face Samgurali in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Iberia 1999 a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Samgurali 24%, so FC Iberia 1999 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for FC Iberia 1999 and 1.1 for Samgurali (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Iberia 1999 are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.17 for Samgurali. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 2-1.

FC Iberia 1999 vs Samgurali Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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