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Kolkheti Poti vs Aragvi Dusheti Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:30

Kolkheti Poti

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Aragvi Dusheti

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-18.0%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.0%1-111.9%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-18.8%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.9%3-14.4%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 48.8% 2.05 +4.8%

Draw 25.1% 30.8% 3.25 -11.1%

Away win 23.8% 32.3% 3.10 -15.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 51.3% 1.95 -1.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.8% 3.25 -4.0%

BTTS 49.2% 57.8% 1.73 -14.9%

Home O1.5 40.1% — — —

Away O1.5 18.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 30.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 1–1✓ 11.9%

#3 2–0 11.9%

#4 0–0 10.8%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kolkheti Poti1.5

Aragvi Dusheti0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KOLKHETI POTI · PPG 1.36

ARAGVI DUSHETI · PPG 0.82

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kolkheti Poti (H) 51.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +4.8%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.1%

Aragvi Dusheti (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kolkheti Poti face Aragvi Dusheti in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kolkheti Poti a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Aragvi Dusheti 24%, so Kolkheti Poti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Kolkheti Poti and 0.7 for Aragvi Dusheti (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kolkheti Poti are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.82 for Aragvi Dusheti. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Kolkheti Poti vs Aragvi Dusheti Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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