Today / Lithuania - A Lyga / Zalgiris vs Siauliai

Zalgiris vs Siauliai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 12 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 16:30

Zalgiris

PPG 1.17 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Siauliai

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.80)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-17.3%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.1%1-111.7%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.4%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.0%3-15.0%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 22.6% — — —

Over 2.5 46.5% — — —

Over 3.5 22.8% — — —

BTTS 52.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.1%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 2–0 11.3%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zalgiris1.6

Siauliai0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ZALGIRIS · PPG 1.17

SIAULIAI · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Zalgiris (H) 51.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Siauliai (A) 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Zalgiris face Siauliai in Lithuania - A Lyga on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zalgiris a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Siauliai 23%, so Zalgiris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Zalgiris and 0.8 for Siauliai (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zalgiris are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.80 for Siauliai. This match finished 3-1.

Zalgiris vs Siauliai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Lithuania - A Lyga Predictions