Today / Lithuania - A Lyga / Zalgiris vs Panevezys

Zalgiris vs Panevezys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 20 ·Tuesday, June 16, 2026, 16:30

Zalgiris

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Panevezys

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-15.4%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.7%1-110.3%1-24.5%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.9%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.1%3-16.3%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-14.6%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 57.1% 1.50 -14.3%

Draw 22.6% 3.95 -6.4%

Away win 20.3% 5.50 +7.0%

Over 2.5 55.9% 1.70 -5.0%

Over 3.5 35.4% 2.75 -2.6%

BTTS 54.5% 1.73 -5.7%

Win probability 1X2

Zalgiris (H) 57.1%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -14.3%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -6.4%

Panevezys (A) 20.3%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -28.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 57% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zalgiris1.9

Panevezys0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.9% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ZALGIRIS · PPG 1.44

PANEVEZYS · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away POOR (0.75)

Match Preview & Prediction

Zalgiris face Panevezys in Lithuania - A Lyga on Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zalgiris a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Panevezys 20%, so Zalgiris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Zalgiris and 0.9 for Panevezys (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zalgiris are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.75 for Panevezys. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.0%.

Zalgiris vs Panevezys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Lithuania - A Lyga Predictions