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Zalgiris vs Panevezys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 20 ·Tuesday, June 16, 2026, 16:30

Zalgiris

PPG 1.44 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Panevezys

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-15.4%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.7%1-110.3%1-24.5%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.9%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.1%3-16.3%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-14.6%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.1% 66.7% 1.50 -14.3%

Draw 22.6% 25.3% 3.95 -6.4%

Away win 20.3% 18.2% 5.50 +7.0%

Over 2.5 55.9% 58.8% 1.70 -5.0%

Over 3.5 35.4% 36.4% 2.75 -2.6%

BTTS 54.5% 57.8% 1.73 -5.7%

Home O1.5 55.9% 64.5% 1.55 -13.4%

Away O1.5 27.9% 27.8% 3.60 +0.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 57% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zalgiris1.9

Panevezys0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.9% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ZALGIRIS · PPG 1.44

PANEVEZYS · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Zalgiris (H) 57.1%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -14.3%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -6.4%

Panevezys (A) 20.3%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zalgiris face Panevezys in Lithuania - A Lyga on Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zalgiris a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Panevezys 20%, so Zalgiris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Zalgiris and 0.9 for Panevezys (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zalgiris are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.75 for Panevezys. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Zalgiris vs Panevezys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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