Suduva vs Banga Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Lithuania - A Lyga Regular Season - 17 Marijampole Football Arena· Marijampole Saturday, June 13, 2026 11:15

Suduva PPG 2.25

VS PENDING

Banga PPG 1.38

Home· +5.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Suduva face Banga in Lithuania - A Lyga on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suduva a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Banga 25%, so Suduva are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Suduva and 0.8 for Banga (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suduva are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.38 for Banga. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.4%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 43.9%

Odds: 2.40 EV: +5.4%

Draw 31.6%

Odds: 2.80 EV: -11.5%

Away 24.5%

Odds: 2.90 EV: -17.4%

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 37.8% Odds: 2.38 -10.0%

Over 3.5 18.9% Odds: 4.50 -9.0%

BTTS 47.8% Odds: 1.95 -6.8%

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0

2nd 1-0

3rd 1-1

4th 0-1

5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Suduva

0.98

Banga

0.76

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5/Under 44%

BTTS/No 44%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -28.3%

Bet Hit 33% (6 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=43.9%