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Bayern Munich W vs Hoffenheim W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 24 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 16:00

Bayern Munich W

PPG 2.82 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Hoffenheim W

PPG 1.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.7% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-11.5%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.7%1-14.7%1-21.7%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.5%2-17.4%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.1%3-17.8%3-22.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-019.1%4+-113.5%4+-24.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.7% 87.0% 1.15 -18.7%

Draw 20.6% 15.4% 6.50 +20.3%

Away win 8.7% 8.3% 12.00 +2.6%

Over 2.5 61.7% 76.9% 1.30 -19.8%

Over 3.5 53.8% 56.5% 1.77 -4.8%

BTTS 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.3%

H 71% / xG 3.2-0.7 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.1%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 4–0 8.7%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayern Munich W3.2

Hoffenheim W0.7

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYERN MUNICH W · PPG 2.82

HOFFENHEIM W · PPG 1.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.82), Away GOOD (1.91) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bayern Munich W (H) 70.7%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV -18.7%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +20.3%

Hoffenheim W (A) 8.7%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayern Munich W face Hoffenheim W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayern Munich W a 71% chance, the draw 21% and Hoffenheim W 9%, so Bayern Munich W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Bayern Munich W and 0.7 for Hoffenheim W (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayern Munich W are averaging 2.82 points per game versus 1.91 for Hoffenheim W. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +20.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Bayern Munich W vs Hoffenheim W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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