Today / Germany - Frauen Bundesliga / RB Leipzig W vs Bayer Leverkusen W

RB Leipzig W vs Bayer Leverkusen W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:00

RB Leipzig W

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bayer Leverkusen W

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.8%0-25.8%0-33.3%0-4+2.0%1 1-06.1%1-110.3%1-28.8%1-35.0%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.6%2-17.8%2-26.7%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.3%3-14.0%3-23.4%3-31.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 23.1% 4.33 +51.5%

Draw 23.4% 28.6% 3.50 -10.9%

Away win 41.6% 60.6% 1.65 -31.4%

Over 2.5 62.8% 61.7% 1.62 +1.7%

Over 3.5 39.4% 40.0% 2.50 -1.5%

BTTS 61.9% 64.5% 1.55 -4.0%

Home O1.5 40.0% 36.4% 2.75 +10.0%

Away O1.5 48.5% 59.9% 1.67 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.9%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 0–2✓ 5.8%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RB Leipzig W1.5

Bayer Leverkusen W1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RB LEIPZIG W · PPG 1.27

BAYER LEVERKUSEN W · PPG 1.62

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

RB Leipzig W (H) 35.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +51.5%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.9%

Bayer Leverkusen W (A) 41.6%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -31.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

RB Leipzig W face Bayer Leverkusen W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RB Leipzig W a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Bayer Leverkusen W 42%, so Bayer Leverkusen W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for RB Leipzig W and 1.7 for Bayer Leverkusen W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RB Leipzig W are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.62 for Bayer Leverkusen W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +35.0%. This match finished 0-2.

RB Leipzig W vs Bayer Leverkusen W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Frauen Bundesliga Predictions