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Bayern Munich W vs SC Freiburg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Bayern Munich W

PPG 2.39 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

UPCOMING

SC Freiburg W

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 66% chance

xG gap +1.09 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.0%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.8%1-18.8%1-25.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.4%3-17.2%3-24.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-16.7%4+-23.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 95.2% 1.05 -41.0%

Draw 22.0% 7.7% 13.00 +111.6%

Away win 21.8% 4.8% 21.00 +214.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 80.0% 1.25 -25.4%

Over 3.5 37.7% 59.9% 1.67 -37.0%

BTTS 55.9% 45.5% 2.20 +23.0%

Home O1.5 66.3% — — —

Away O1.5 33.2% 12.5% 8.00 +165.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 1–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayern Munich W2.2

SC Freiburg W1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYERN MUNICH W · PPG 2.39

SC FREIBURG W · PPG 1.06

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

66%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.09 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bayern Munich W (H) 56.2%

ODDS 1.05 · IMPLIED 95.2% EV -41.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +111.6%

SC Freiburg W (A) 21.8%

ODDS 21.00 · IMPLIED 4.8% EV +214.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayern Munich W face SC Freiburg W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayern Munich W a 56% chance, the draw 22% and SC Freiburg W 22%, so Bayern Munich W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Bayern Munich W and 1.1 for SC Freiburg W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayern Munich W are averaging 2.39 points per game versus 1.06 for SC Freiburg W. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +181.9%.

Bayern Munich W vs SC Freiburg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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