Today / Germany - Frauen Bundesliga / Bayer Leverkusen W vs VfL Wolfsburg W

Bayer Leverkusen W vs VfL Wolfsburg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:00

Bayer Leverkusen W

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

VfL Wolfsburg W

PPG 2.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.5%0-24.3%0-32.8%0-4+2.1%1 1-04.2%1-18.2%1-27.9%1-35.1%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.9%2-17.5%2-27.3%2-34.7%2-4+3.5%3 3-02.4%3-14.6%3-24.4%3-32.9%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.2%4+-23.1%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 33.9% 2.95 +4.1%

Draw 22.7% 27.4% 3.65 -10.3%

Away win 42.0% 48.8% 2.05 -13.9%

Over 2.5 64.2% 64.5% 1.55 -0.5%

Over 3.5 43.2% 42.0% 2.38 +2.8%

BTTS 63.1% 69.0% 1.45 -8.5%

Home O1.5 54.9% 45.5% 2.20 +20.8%

Away O1.5 56.9% 57.1% 1.75 -0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.1%

A 42% / xG 1.8-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 1–2✓ 7.9%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 1–3 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayer Leverkusen W1.8

VfL Wolfsburg W1.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYER LEVERKUSEN W · PPG 1.73

VFL WOLFSBURG W · PPG 2.15

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bayer Leverkusen W (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +4.1%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.3%

VfL Wolfsburg W (A) 42.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayer Leverkusen W face VfL Wolfsburg W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayer Leverkusen W a 35% chance, the draw 23% and VfL Wolfsburg W 42%, so VfL Wolfsburg W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bayer Leverkusen W and 1.9 for VfL Wolfsburg W (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayer Leverkusen W are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 2.15 for VfL Wolfsburg W. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +23.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Bayer Leverkusen W vs VfL Wolfsburg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Frauen Bundesliga Predictions