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1899 Hoffenheim W vs Bayer Leverkusen W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Matchday 3 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:30

1899 Hoffenheim W

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

UPCOMING

Bayer Leverkusen W

PPG 1.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.8%0-25.6%0-32.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.9%1-111.5%1-28.3%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.5%2-26.1%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.9%3-14.2%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.0% 32.3% 3.10 +14.7%

Draw 26.0% 30.3% 3.30 -8.5%

Away win 37.0% 50.0% 2.00 -26.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 38.2% 2.62 -17.0%

BTTS 55.4% 62.5% 1.60 -11.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 40.0% 2.50 -0.3%

Away O1.5 42.2% 54.1% 1.85 -21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.4%

H 37% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 0–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

1899 Hoffenheim W1.5

Bayer Leverkusen W1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

1899 HOFFENHEIM W · PPG 1.32

BAYER LEVERKUSEN W · PPG 1.85

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

1899 Hoffenheim W (H) 37.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +14.7%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.5%

Bayer Leverkusen W (A) 37.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -26.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

1899 Hoffenheim W face Bayer Leverkusen W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives 1899 Hoffenheim W a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Bayer Leverkusen W 37%, so 1899 Hoffenheim W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for 1899 Hoffenheim W and 1.4 for Bayer Leverkusen W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, 1899 Hoffenheim W are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.85 for Bayer Leverkusen W. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +17.9%.

1899 Hoffenheim W vs Bayer Leverkusen W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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