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Werder Bremen W vs RB Leipzig W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:30

Werder Bremen W

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

RB Leipzig W

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.2%0-23.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-05.5%1-18.6%1-26.7%1-33.5%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.7%2-18.9%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.9%3-16.1%3-24.8%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-15.0%4+-23.9%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 51.3% 1.95 -6.8%

Draw 24.7% 28.2% 3.55 -7.4%

Away win 27.5% 30.8% 3.25 -6.4%

Over 2.5 60.8% 60.6% 1.65 +0.3%

Over 3.5 39.3% 38.5% 2.60 +2.2%

BTTS 60.2% 65.4% 1.53 -7.9%

Home O1.5 59.6% 55.6% 1.80 +7.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 40.8% 2.45 +17.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.2%

H 48% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Werder Bremen W2.1

RB Leipzig W1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WERDER BREMEN W · PPG 1.92

RB LEIPZIG W · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Werder Bremen W (H) 47.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -6.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.4%

RB Leipzig W (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Werder Bremen W face RB Leipzig W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Werder Bremen W a 48% chance, the draw 25% and RB Leipzig W 28%, so Werder Bremen W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Werder Bremen W and 1.6 for RB Leipzig W (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Werder Bremen W are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.17 for RB Leipzig W. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +19.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Werder Bremen W vs RB Leipzig W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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