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Hamburger SV W vs RB Leipzig W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Hamburger SV W

PPG 0.85 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

UPCOMING

RB Leipzig W

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 57.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.4%0-24.7%0-32.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.2%1-110.6%1-27.8%1-33.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-06.0%2-18.9%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.3%3-14.9%3-23.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.0%4+-22.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 33.3% 3.00 +36.2%

Draw 24.5% 31.3% 3.20 -13.0%

Away win 30.1% 48.8% 2.05 -38.3%

Over 2.5 57.2% 52.6% 1.90 +8.7%

Over 3.5 36.4% 30.8% 3.25 +18.3%

BTTS 57.6% 64.5% 1.55 -10.7%

Home O1.5 49.4% 38.2% 2.62 +29.4%

Away O1.5 42.2% 47.6% 2.10 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob57.6%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–0 6.0%

#5 1–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hamburger SV W1.7

RB Leipzig W1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMBURGER SV W · PPG 0.85

RB LEIPZIG W · PPG 0.98

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hamburger SV W (H) 45.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +36.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.0%

RB Leipzig W (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -38.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hamburger SV W face RB Leipzig W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hamburger SV W a 45% chance, the draw 25% and RB Leipzig W 30%, so Hamburger SV W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Hamburger SV W and 1.5 for RB Leipzig W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hamburger SV W are averaging 0.85 points per game versus 0.98 for RB Leipzig W. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +33.1%.

Hamburger SV W vs RB Leipzig W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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