Today / Germany - Frauen Bundesliga / SC Freiburg W vs Union Berlin W

SC Freiburg W vs Union Berlin W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:00

SC Freiburg W

PPG 1.68 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Union Berlin W

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 57.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.1% — a clear edge.

+10.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.2%0-23.4%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.3%1-18.6%1-26.9%1-33.7%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.7%3-15.9%3-24.8%3-32.5%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.8%4+-23.9%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 44.4% 2.25 +4.9%

Draw 24.1% 30.3% 3.30 -12.3%

Away win 29.4% 40.0% 2.50 -15.9%

Over 2.5 62.0% 60.6% 1.65 +2.3%

Over 3.5 39.3% 38.2% 2.62 +3.0%

BTTS 60.8% 69.4% 1.44 -12.4%

Home O1.5 57.6% 52.1% 1.92 +10.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 49.0% 2.04 -2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.8%

H 47% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SC Freiburg W2.0

Union Berlin W1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SC FREIBURG W · PPG 1.68

UNION BERLIN W · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SC Freiburg W (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +4.9%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.3%

Union Berlin W (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -15.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

SC Freiburg W face Union Berlin W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SC Freiburg W a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Union Berlin W 29%, so SC Freiburg W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for SC Freiburg W and 1.6 for Union Berlin W (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SC Freiburg W are averaging 1.68 points per game versus 1.27 for Union Berlin W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 1-0.

SC Freiburg W vs Union Berlin W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Frauen Bundesliga Predictions