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Samgurali vs Meshakhte Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 11 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 15:00

Samgurali

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWD

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Meshakhte

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-112.3%0-25.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.2%1-113.4%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.3%2-17.3%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.0%3-12.6%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% 59.9% 1.67 -32.2%

Draw 32.0% 30.3% 3.30 +5.6%

Away win 27.4% 22.2% 4.50 +14.0%

Over 2.5 36.0% 51.3% 1.95 -29.8%

Over 3.5 13.8% 31.3% 3.20 -33.5%

BTTS 48.2% 54.1% 1.85 -10.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.2%

H 41% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.9%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samgurali1.1

Meshakhte0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMGURALI · PPG 1.40

MESHAKHTE · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Samgurali (H) 40.6%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -32.2%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +5.6%

Meshakhte (A) 27.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Samgurali face Meshakhte in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samgurali a 41% chance, the draw 32% and Meshakhte 27%, so Samgurali are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Samgurali and 0.9 for Meshakhte (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samgurali are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.20 for Meshakhte. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Samgurali vs Meshakhte Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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