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Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Yingbo Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 10 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 11:35

Beijing Guoan

PPG 0.33 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Dalian Yingbo

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.7%0-24.6%0-33.0%0-4+2.3%1 1-04.3%1-18.4%1-28.1%1-35.3%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.8%2-17.4%2-27.2%2-34.7%2-4+3.6%3 3-02.3%3-14.4%3-24.3%3-32.8%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.9%4+-22.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 64.1% 1.56 -45.1%

Draw 24.8% 24.4% 4.10 +1.0%

Away win 40.0% 20.6% 4.85 +94.0%

Over 2.5 61.7% 65.4% 1.53 -5.6%

Over 3.5 51.1% 43.5% 2.30 +17.5%

BTTS 63.0% 64.5% 1.55 -2.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.0%

A 40% / xG 1.8-1.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Beijing Guoan1.8

Dalian Yingbo1.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 51.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 0.33

DALIAN YINGBO · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Beijing Guoan (H) 35.2%

ODDS 1.56 · IMPLIED 64.1% EV -45.1%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +1.0%

Dalian Yingbo (A) 40.0%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV +94.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Beijing Guoan face Dalian Yingbo in China - Super League on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Beijing Guoan a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Dalian Yingbo 40%, so Dalian Yingbo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Beijing Guoan and 1.9 for Dalian Yingbo (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Beijing Guoan are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Dalian Yingbo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +94.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Yingbo Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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