Today / China - Super League / Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island

Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Wuhan Three Towns

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLDW

UPCOMING

Qingdao Youth Island

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.0%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.0%1-112.2%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.3%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.7%3-14.7%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 54.6% 1.83 -14.5%

Draw 25.5% 28.2% 3.55 -5.7%

Away win 27.7% 26.0% 3.85 +4.0%

Over 2.5 51.3% 54.6% 1.83 -6.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 32.3% 3.10 -2.0%

BTTS 52.9% 58.8% 1.70 -10.1%

Home O1.5 40.9% 54.1% 1.85 -24.3%

Away O1.5 31.6% 32.3% 3.10 -2.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wuhan Three Towns1.5

Qingdao Youth Island1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WUHAN THREE TOWNS · PPG 1.36

QINGDAO YOUTH ISLAND · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Wuhan Three Towns (H) 46.7%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -14.5%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.7%

Qingdao Youth Island (A) 27.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wuhan Three Towns face Qingdao Youth Island in China - Super League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Qingdao Youth Island 28%, so Wuhan Three Towns are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.0 for Qingdao Youth Island (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.17 for Qingdao Youth Island. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.5%.

Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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