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Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:00

Chongqing Tongliang Long

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

UPCOMING

Shanghai Shenhua

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.5%0-24.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.3%1-111.7%1-27.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.2%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.8%3-14.8%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 31.3% 3.20 +45.3%

Draw 24.5% 29.4% 3.40 -10.0%

Away win 30.1% 48.8% 2.05 -38.3%

Over 2.5 59.6% 59.9% 1.67 -0.5%

Over 3.5 36.3% 38.2% 2.62 -4.9%

BTTS 59.0% 63.7% 1.57 -7.4%

Home O1.5 46.2% 38.2% 2.62 +21.0%

Away O1.5 36.8% 54.6% 1.83 -32.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.0%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chongqing Tongliang Long1.6

Shanghai Shenhua1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CHONGQING TONGLIANG LONG · PPG 1.42

SHANGHAI SHENHUA · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chongqing Tongliang Long (H) 45.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +45.3%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.0%

Shanghai Shenhua (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -38.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chongqing Tongliang Long face Shanghai Shenhua in China - Super League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Shanghai Shenhua 30%, so Chongqing Tongliang Long are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.3 for Shanghai Shenhua (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chongqing Tongliang Long are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.50 for Shanghai Shenhua. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +42.6%.

Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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