Today / China - Super League / Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban

Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:35

Yunnan Yukun

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDL

UPCOMING

Shenyang Urban

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 72% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.0%0-22.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.5%1-17.3%1-24.9%1-32.2%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.7%2-19.1%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.5%3-17.4%3-25.0%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-18.2%4+-25.5%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 57.8% 1.73 -4.9%

Draw 19.8% 25.0% 4.00 -12.5%

Away win 25.2% 25.6% 3.90 -1.0%

Over 2.5 68.4% 73.5% 1.36 -7.0%

Over 3.5 49.4% 54.6% 1.83 -9.6%

BTTS 63.5% 73.5% 1.36 -13.6%

Home O1.5 66.3% 69.4% 1.44 -4.5%

Away O1.5 42.2% 45.5% 2.20 -7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.5%

H 55% / xG 2.5-1.3 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 1–2 4.9%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 2–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yunnan Yukun2.5

Shenyang Urban1.3

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

YUNNAN YUKUN · PPG 1.92

SHENYANG URBAN · PPG 0.55

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

72%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Yunnan Yukun (H) 55.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -4.9%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -12.5%

Shenyang Urban (A) 25.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yunnan Yukun face Shenyang Urban in China - Super League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yunnan Yukun a 55% chance, the draw 20% and Shenyang Urban 25%, so Yunnan Yukun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Yunnan Yukun and 1.3 for Shenyang Urban (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 0.55 for Shenyang Urban. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +6.4%.

Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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