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Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Shandong Luneng

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

UPCOMING

Sichuan Jiuniu

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.7%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.4%1-17.1%1-23.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.4%2-19.2%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.3%3-18.0%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-19.7%4+-25.3%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.6% 64.9% 1.54 -8.2%

Draw 19.1% 23.8% 4.20 -11.9%

Away win 21.3% 20.0% 5.00 +3.9%

Over 2.5 66.8% 70.4% 1.42 -5.1%

Over 3.5 45.0% 48.8% 2.05 -7.8%

BTTS 61.5% 69.0% 1.45 -10.8%

Home O1.5 66.3% 70.4% 1.42 -5.9%

Away O1.5 33.1% 37.7% 2.65 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.5%

H 60% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.1%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 1–2 3.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shandong Luneng2.6

Sichuan Jiuniu1.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANDONG LUNENG · PPG 2.00

SICHUAN JIUNIU · PPG 0.58

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.50 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.58 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Shandong Luneng (H) 59.6%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV -8.2%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -11.9%

Sichuan Jiuniu (A) 21.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shandong Luneng face Sichuan Jiuniu in China - Super League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shandong Luneng a 60% chance, the draw 19% and Sichuan Jiuniu 21%, so Shandong Luneng are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Shandong Luneng and 1.1 for Sichuan Jiuniu (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.58 for Sichuan Jiuniu. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +10.9%.

Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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