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Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:35

Dalian Zhixing

PPG 2.08 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWD

UPCOMING

Qingdao Jonoon

PPG 0.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.4%0-21.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.3%1-18.0%1-24.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.7%2-19.6%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.9%3-17.6%3-24.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-18.0%4+-24.4%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 69.9% 1.43 -14.9%

Draw 19.3% 22.7% 4.40 -9.0%

Away win 21.2% 16.7% 6.00 +16.3%

Over 2.5 65.0% 64.5% 1.55 +0.8%

Over 3.5 44.8% 41.7% 2.40 +7.5%

BTTS 59.6% 59.9% 1.67 -0.5%

Home O1.5 66.3% 69.0% 1.45 -3.9%

Away O1.5 33.2% 27.4% 3.65 +21.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.6%

H 60% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalian Zhixing2.4

Qingdao Jonoon1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DALIAN ZHIXING · PPG 2.08

QINGDAO JONOON · PPG 0.31

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.28 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dalian Zhixing (H) 59.5%

ODDS 1.43 · IMPLIED 69.9% EV -14.9%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -9.0%

Qingdao Jonoon (A) 21.2%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalian Zhixing face Qingdao Jonoon in China - Super League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalian Zhixing a 60% chance, the draw 19% and Qingdao Jonoon 21%, so Dalian Zhixing are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Dalian Zhixing and 1.1 for Qingdao Jonoon (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalian Zhixing are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 0.31 for Qingdao Jonoon. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +21.2%.

Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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