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Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:35

Henan Jianye

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDD

UPCOMING

Chengdu Better City

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 65% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.2%0-26.5%0-33.0%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.6%1-112.2%1-28.5%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.7%2-18.0%2-25.6%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.5%3-13.5%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 37.0% 2.70 -2.5%

Draw 24.1% 30.8% 3.25 -13.0%

Away win 39.9% 41.7% 2.40 -4.2%

Over 2.5 59.6% 62.5% 1.60 -4.6%

Over 3.5 36.8% 40.0% 2.50 -8.0%

BTTS 61.5% 66.7% 1.50 -7.8%

Home O1.5 38.5% 45.5% 2.20 -15.3%

Away O1.5 42.2% 52.4% 1.91 -19.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

A 40% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–1 9.2%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Henan Jianye1.3

Chengdu Better City1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HENAN JIANYE · PPG 1.33

CHENGDU BETTER CITY · PPG 2.00

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Henan Jianye (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -2.5%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.0%

Chengdu Better City (A) 39.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Henan Jianye face Chengdu Better City in China - Super League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Henan Jianye a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Chengdu Better City 40%, so Chengdu Better City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Henan Jianye and 1.4 for Chengdu Better City (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Henan Jianye are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Chengdu Better City.

Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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