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Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:00

Hangzhou Greentown

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDW

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Yunnan Yukun

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.2%0-22.8%0-31.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-04.0%1-17.1%1-26.3%1-33.8%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.5%2-18.0%2-27.1%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-03.3%3-16.0%3-25.4%3-33.2%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-15.7%4+-25.1%4+-33.0%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 52.1% 1.92 -14.6%

Draw 21.4% 25.6% 3.90 -9.9%

Away win 34.1% 31.3% 3.20 +9.1%

Over 2.5 68.2% 73.5% 1.36 -7.2%

Over 3.5 48.2% 54.1% 1.85 -10.8%

BTTS 64.4% 76.9% 1.30 -16.3%

Home O1.5 65.8% 65.4% 1.53 +0.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 51.3% 1.95 -6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob64.4%

H 44% / xG 2.2-1.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.1%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 6.3%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hangzhou Greentown2.3

Yunnan Yukun1.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HANGZHOU GREENTOWN · PPG 1.64

YUNNAN YUKUN · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hangzhou Greentown (H) 44.5%

ODDS 1.92 · IMPLIED 52.1% EV -14.6%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.9%

Yunnan Yukun (A) 34.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hangzhou Greentown face Yunnan Yukun in China - Super League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 45% chance, the draw 21% and Yunnan Yukun 34%, so Hangzhou Greentown are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.8 for Yunnan Yukun (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.00 for Yunnan Yukun. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +0.7%. This match finished 6-0.

Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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