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SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:35

SHANGHAI SIPG

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

UPCOMING

Beijing Guoan

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.9%0-24.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.4%1-111.2%1-27.5%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.2%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.7%3-15.0%3-23.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 45.0% 2.22 +0.6%

Draw 24.4% 26.7% 3.75 -5.1%

Away win 30.3% 37.0% 2.70 -18.2%

Over 2.5 59.6% 70.4% 1.42 -15.4%

Over 3.5 36.4% 48.8% 2.05 -25.4%

BTTS 60.5% 73.5% 1.36 -17.7%

Home O1.5 48.1% 57.8% 1.73 -16.8%

Away O1.5 42.2% 52.4% 1.91 -19.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.5%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SHANGHAI SIPG1.6

Beijing Guoan1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANGHAI SIPG · PPG 1.58

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SHANGHAI SIPG (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +0.6%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.1%

Beijing Guoan (A) 30.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

SHANGHAI SIPG face Beijing Guoan in China - Super League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Beijing Guoan 30%, so SHANGHAI SIPG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.3 for Beijing Guoan (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.67 for Beijing Guoan.

SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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