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Wuhan Three T. vs Qingdao Hainiu Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 10 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 11:00

Wuhan Three T.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Qingdao Hainiu

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.8%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.1%1-111.3%1-27.1%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.4%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.1%3-15.2%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 45.5% 2.20 +5.2%

Draw 26.2% 29.4% 3.40 -6.6%

Away win 26.0% 34.0% 2.94 -14.1%

Over 2.5 59.3% 56.5% 1.77 +5.0%

Over 3.5 33.2% 33.9% 2.95 -2.1%

BTTS 58.8% 62.5% 1.60 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.8%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wuhan Three T.1.7

Qingdao Hainiu1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

WUHAN THREE T. · PPG 1.50

QINGDAO HAINIU · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=47.8%

Win probability 1X2

Wuhan Three T. (H) 47.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +5.2%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.6%

Qingdao Hainiu (A) 26.0%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wuhan Three T. face Qingdao Hainiu in China - Super League on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wuhan Three T. a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Qingdao Hainiu 26%, so Wuhan Three T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Wuhan Three T. and 1.3 for Qingdao Hainiu (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wuhan Three T. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.25 for Qingdao Hainiu. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.2%. This match finished 1-3.

Wuhan Three T. vs Qingdao Hainiu Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - Super League Predictions