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Oberwart vs Donau Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost · Matchday 6 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:30

Oberwart

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWW

UPCOMING

Donau

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.7%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.9%1-15.2%1-22.8%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.5%2-18.0%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-18.2%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-012.6%4+-113.5%4+-27.2%4+-32.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.0% 80.0% 1.25 -12.5%

Draw 15.8% 18.2% 5.50 -7.9%

Away win 14.1% 13.3% 7.50 +3.5%

Over 2.5 68.6% 78.1% 1.28 -12.2%

Over 3.5 49.4% 61.0% 1.64 -19.0%

BTTS 61.5% 64.5% 1.55 -4.7%

Home O1.5 77.9% 85.5% 1.17 -8.9%

Away O1.5 32.5% 28.6% 3.50 +13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -47.0%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.5%

H 70% / xG 3.1-1.1 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 3–0 7.7%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 1–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oberwart3.1

Donau1.1

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.6% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

OBERWART · PPG 1.82

DONAU · PPG 1.04

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.00 for Home, form 1.82 vs 1.04 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Oberwart (H) 70.0%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -12.5%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -7.9%

Donau (A) 14.1%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oberwart face Donau in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oberwart a 70% chance, the draw 16% and Donau 14%, so Oberwart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Oberwart and 1.1 for Donau (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oberwart are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.04 for Donau. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +28.2%.

Oberwart vs Donau Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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