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Donau vs Traiskirchen Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 17:30

Donau

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Traiskirchen

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 76.6% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.5%0-23.2%0-32.7%0-4+3.0%1 1-02.1%1-15.3%1-26.6%1-35.6%1-4+6.3%2 2-02.2%2-15.5%2-26.9%2-35.8%2-4+6.6%3 3-01.5%3-13.8%3-24.8%3-34.0%3-4+4.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-13.2%4+-24.1%4+-33.4%4+-4+3.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.8% 19.0% 5.25 +82.7%

Draw 19.2% 21.1% 4.75 -5.3%

Away win 46.0% 72.5% 1.38 -36.5%

Over 2.5 76.6% 80.0% 1.25 -4.3%

Over 3.5 56.2% 60.6% 1.65 -7.3%

BTTS 69.6% 73.0% 1.37 -4.7%

Home O1.5 59.6% 39.8% 2.51 +49.6%

Away O1.5 67.8% 78.7% 1.27 -13.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -47.0%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob69.6%

A 46% / xG 2.1-2.5 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.9%

#2 1–2 6.6%

#3 2–1 5.5%

#4 1–1✓ 5.3%

#5 2–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Donau2.1

Traiskirchen2.5

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.6% · O3.5 PROB 56.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DONAU · PPG 1.27

TRAISKIRCHEN · PPG 1.59

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Donau (H) 34.8%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +82.7%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -5.3%

Traiskirchen (A) 46.0%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -36.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Donau face Traiskirchen in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Donau a 35% chance, the draw 19% and Traiskirchen 46%, so Traiskirchen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Donau and 2.5 for Traiskirchen (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Donau are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.59 for Traiskirchen. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +62.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Donau vs Traiskirchen Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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