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SV Horn vs Donau Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost · Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 17:30

SV Horn

PPG 1.99 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Donau

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 77.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-12.0%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.7%1-15.7%1-22.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.8%2-18.4%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.6%3-18.1%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-014.2%4+-112.1%4+-25.2%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.6% 80.0% 1.25 -10.5%

Draw 17.0% 20.0% 5.00 -9.0%

Away win 11.4% 11.8% 8.50 -1.9%

Over 2.5 67.3% 65.4% 1.53 +3.0%

Over 3.5 43.5% 45.7% 2.19 -4.7%

BTTS 54.7% 55.2% 1.81 -1.0%

Home O1.5 78.4% 77.5% 1.29 +1.1%

Away O1.5 22.8% 22.0% 4.55 +2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -47.0%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 72% / xG 2.9-0.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.8%

#2 3–0 9.6%

#3 1–1✓ 5.7%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 3–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SV Horn2.9

Donau0.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SV HORN · PPG 1.99

DONAU · PPG 1.04

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.06 for Home, form 1.99 vs 1.04 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

SV Horn (H) 71.6%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -10.5%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -9.0%

Donau (A) 11.4%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

SV Horn face Donau in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SV Horn a 72% chance, the draw 17% and Donau 11%, so SV Horn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for SV Horn and 0.9 for Donau (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SV Horn are averaging 1.99 points per game versus 1.04 for Donau. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 1-1.

SV Horn vs Donau Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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