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Favoritner AC vs Fach-Donaufeld Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost · Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 17:10

Favoritner AC

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Fach-Donaufeld

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 68.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-18.8%0-24.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.3%1-112.6%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-18.9%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.8%3-14.2%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 44.4% 2.25 +0.4%

Draw 26.5% 26.7% 3.75 -0.4%

Away win 28.9% 40.0% 2.50 -16.7%

Over 2.5 50.2% 62.5% 1.60 -19.7%

Over 3.5 28.4% 42.0% 2.38 -19.4%

BTTS 53.0% 68.0% 1.47 -22.1%

Home O1.5 40.0% 50.8% 1.97 -21.2%

Away O1.5 35.6% 49.0% 2.04 -27.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -47.0%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 0–0 8.0%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Favoritner AC1.4

Fach-Donaufeld1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FAVORITNER AC · PPG 1.89

FACH-DONAUFELD · PPG 1.68

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Favoritner AC (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +0.4%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -0.4%

Fach-Donaufeld (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Favoritner AC face Fach-Donaufeld in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Favoritner AC a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Fach-Donaufeld 29%, so Favoritner AC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Favoritner AC and 1.1 for Fach-Donaufeld (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Favoritner AC are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.68 for Fach-Donaufeld. This match finished 0-1.

Favoritner AC vs Fach-Donaufeld Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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