Today / Austria - Regionalliga - Ost / Gloggnitz vs Parndorf

Gloggnitz vs Parndorf Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:00

Gloggnitz

PPG 2.16 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLD

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Parndorf

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.4%0-24.3%0-32.2%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.1%1-19.6%1-27.7%1-34.1%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.7%2-26.9%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.3%3-15.2%3-24.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.5%4+-22.8%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 44.4% 2.25 -2.4%

Draw 21.9% 26.7% 3.75 -10.7%

Away win 34.7% 40.0% 2.50 -13.3%

Over 2.5 64.6% 63.7% 1.57 +1.4%

Over 3.5 43.5% 43.3% 2.31 +0.5%

BTTS 63.2% 69.9% 1.43 -9.6%

Home O1.5 48.8% 54.6% 1.83 -10.7%

Away O1.5 48.5% 48.3% 2.07 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -47.0%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.2%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gloggnitz1.8

Parndorf1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GLOGGNITZ · PPG 2.16

PARNDORF · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gloggnitz (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -2.4%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.7%

Parndorf (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gloggnitz face Parndorf in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gloggnitz a 43% chance, the draw 22% and Parndorf 35%, so Gloggnitz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Gloggnitz and 1.6 for Parndorf (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gloggnitz are averaging 2.16 points per game versus 1.50 for Parndorf. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Gloggnitz vs Parndorf Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

More Austria - Regionalliga - Ost Predictions