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Traiskirchen vs Leobendorf Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost · Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 17:30

Traiskirchen

PPG 1.39 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWD

5 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Leobendorf

PPG 1.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 68.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.6%0-24.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.8%1-111.8%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.2%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.0%3-14.8%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 58.8% 1.70 -22.0%

Draw 24.7% 25.0% 4.00 -0.7%

Away win 29.4% 27.0% 3.70 +5.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 65.4% 1.53 -17.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 46.5% 2.15 -32.1%

BTTS 54.7% 68.5% 1.46 -20.1%

Home O1.5 45.4% 64.5% 1.55 -29.6%

Away O1.5 37.3% 41.7% 2.40 -10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -47.0%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Traiskirchen1.6

Leobendorf1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TRAISKIRCHEN · PPG 1.39

LEOBENDORF · PPG 1.85

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Traiskirchen (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -22.0%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -0.7%

Leobendorf (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Traiskirchen face Leobendorf in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Traiskirchen a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Leobendorf 29%, so Traiskirchen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Traiskirchen and 1.2 for Leobendorf (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Traiskirchen are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.85 for Leobendorf. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 5-4.

Traiskirchen vs Leobendorf Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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