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Favoritner AC vs Leobendorf Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost · Matchday 6 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:10

Favoritner AC

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

UPCOMING

Leobendorf

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-19.1%0-24.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.0%1-112.7%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-18.9%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.9%3-14.1%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 45.5% 2.20 -1.7%

Draw 26.2% 26.7% 3.75 -1.1%

Away win 29.1% 39.2% 2.55 -15.5%

Over 2.5 50.6% 58.8% 1.70 -14.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 37.6% 2.66 -14.2%

BTTS 52.9% 64.1% 1.56 -17.5%

Home O1.5 39.7% 48.3% 2.07 -17.8%

Away O1.5 32.5% 46.1% 2.17 -29.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -47.0%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Favoritner AC1.4

Leobendorf1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FAVORITNER AC · PPG 1.62

LEOBENDORF · PPG 1.59

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.33, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Favoritner AC (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -1.7%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.1%

Leobendorf (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Favoritner AC face Leobendorf in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Favoritner AC a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Leobendorf 29%, so Favoritner AC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Favoritner AC and 1.1 for Leobendorf (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Favoritner AC are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.59 for Leobendorf.

Favoritner AC vs Leobendorf Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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