Today / Austria - Regionalliga - Ost / Leobendorf vs Oberwart

Leobendorf vs Oberwart Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:30

Leobendorf

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Oberwart

PPG 1.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.3%0-24.9%0-32.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.8%1-110.5%1-28.0%1-34.1%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.7%2-26.6%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.1%3-14.8%3-23.7%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.9%4+-22.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 36.4% 2.75 +8.1%

Draw 23.5% 25.0% 4.00 -3.6%

Away win 37.3% 50.0% 2.00 -25.4%

Over 2.5 63.1% 69.4% 1.44 -9.1%

Over 3.5 39.3% 48.3% 2.07 -18.6%

BTTS 63.1% 73.0% 1.37 -13.6%

Home O1.5 48.9% 50.3% 1.99 -2.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 59.9% 1.67 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -47.0%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.1%

H 39% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leobendorf1.7

Oberwart1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LEOBENDORF · PPG 1.53

OBERWART · PPG 1.84

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leobendorf (H) 39.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +8.1%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.6%

Oberwart (A) 37.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -25.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leobendorf face Oberwart in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leobendorf a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Oberwart 37%, so Leobendorf are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Leobendorf and 1.5 for Oberwart (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leobendorf are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.84 for Oberwart. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Leobendorf vs Oberwart Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

More Austria - Regionalliga - Ost Predictions