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Krems / Rehberg vs SV Horn Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 17:30

Krems / Rehberg

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

SV Horn

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 73.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-19.3%0-25.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.6%1-112.7%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.0%2-18.8%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.7%3-14.0%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 52.4% 1.91 -26.3%

Draw 26.2% 27.0% 3.70 -1.8%

Away win 35.1% 31.3% 3.20 +12.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 66.7% 1.50 -24.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 48.3% 2.07 -24.3%

BTTS 52.7% 73.0% 1.37 -27.8%

Home O1.5 38.0% 61.0% 1.64 -37.7%

Away O1.5 33.0% 48.3% 2.07 -31.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -47.0%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–1✓ 9.3%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Krems / Rehberg1.4

SV Horn1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KREMS / REHBERG · PPG 1.75

SV HORN · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.28, combined xG 2.47 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Krems / Rehberg (H) 38.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -26.3%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.8%

SV Horn (A) 35.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Krems / Rehberg face SV Horn in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Krems / Rehberg a 39% chance, the draw 26% and SV Horn 35%, so Krems / Rehberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Krems / Rehberg and 1.1 for SV Horn (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Krems / Rehberg are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.10 for SV Horn. This match finished 0-1.

Krems / Rehberg vs SV Horn Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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