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Samtredia vs Odishi 1919 Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Matchday 23 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:00

Samtredia

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Odishi 1919

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.8%0-23.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.6%1-19.7%1-26.1%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.7%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.1%3-16.4%3-24.1%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-15.1%4+-23.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 48.8% 2.05 +8.4%

Draw 23.2% 30.3% 3.30 -14.1%

Away win 23.9% 32.3% 3.10 -15.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 51.3% 1.95 +16.4%

Over 3.5 37.0% 30.8% 3.25 +20.3%

BTTS 59.9% 57.8% 1.73 +3.6%

Home O1.5 56.3% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 30.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.9%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–2 6.1%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samtredia2.0

Odishi 19191.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMTREDIA · PPG 1.50

ODISHI 1919 · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Samtredia (H) 52.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +8.4%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.1%

Odishi 1919 (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Samtredia face Odishi 1919 in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samtredia a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Odishi 1919 24%, so Samtredia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Samtredia and 1.3 for Odishi 1919 (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samtredia are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Odishi 1919. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 3-0.

Samtredia vs Odishi 1919 Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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