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PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persita Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 08:30

PSIM Yogyakarta

PPG 1.48 · HOME

UPCOMING

Persita

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.3%0-24.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.6%1-111.7%1-27.1%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.3%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.1%3-15.0%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.8%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 51.3% 1.95 -9.3%

Draw 24.2% 31.3% 3.20 -13.5%

Away win 29.3% 28.2% 3.55 +2.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.8% 2.05 +10.3%

Over 3.5 33.5% 27.0% 3.70 +23.9%

BTTS 55.9% 55.6% 1.80 +0.6%

Home O1.5 47.7% 47.6% 2.10 +0.2%

Away O1.5 36.8% 31.3% 3.20 +17.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -55.8%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.6%

#4 2–0 7.7%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PSIM Yogyakarta1.6

Persita1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PSIM YOGYAKARTA · PPG 1.48

PERSITA · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

PSIM Yogyakarta (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -9.3%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.5%

Persita (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

PSIM Yogyakarta face Persita in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PSIM Yogyakarta a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Persita 29%, so PSIM Yogyakarta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for PSIM Yogyakarta and 1.2 for Persita (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PSIM Yogyakarta are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.25 for Persita. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.9%.

PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persita Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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