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Persepam Madura Utd vs Persijap Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 12:00

Persepam Madura Utd

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Persijap

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-17.8%0-24.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.3%1-112.0%1-27.0%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.2%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.0%3-14.7%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 54.1% 1.85 -14.2%

Draw 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Away win 29.3% 26.3% 3.80 +6.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 50.0% 2.00 +7.6%

Over 3.5 31.7% 29.9% 3.34 +5.9%

BTTS 55.7% 55.6% 1.80 +0.3%

Home O1.5 42.1% 50.3% 1.99 -16.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 29.2% 3.42 +13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -55.8%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.7%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persepam Madura Utd1.5

Persijap1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSEPAM MADURA UTD · PPG 1.25

PERSIJAP · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Persepam Madura Utd (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -14.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

Persijap (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persepam Madura Utd face Persijap in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persepam Madura Utd a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Persijap 29%, so Persepam Madura Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Persepam Madura Utd and 1.2 for Persijap (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persepam Madura Utd are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.06 for Persijap. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +25.0%.

Persepam Madura Utd vs Persijap Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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