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Bhayangkara FC vs Persebaya Surabaya Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 08:30

Bhayangkara FC

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Persebaya Surabaya

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-17.8%0-24.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.3%1-112.0%1-27.0%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.2%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.1%3-14.7%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 41.7% 2.40 +11.6%

Draw 24.2% 29.9% 3.35 -11.4%

Away win 29.3% 39.2% 2.55 -15.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

BTTS 55.8% 61.7% 1.62 -9.6%

Home O1.5 43.5% 45.5% 2.20 -4.3%

Away O1.5 33.2% 43.5% 2.30 -23.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -55.8%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.8%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bhayangkara FC1.5

Persebaya Surabaya1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BHAYANGKARA FC · PPG 1.90

PERSEBAYA SURABAYA · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bhayangkara FC (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +11.6%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.4%

Persebaya Surabaya (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bhayangkara FC face Persebaya Surabaya in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bhayangkara FC a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Persebaya Surabaya 29%, so Bhayangkara FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bhayangkara FC and 1.2 for Persebaya Surabaya (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bhayangkara FC are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.56 for Persebaya Surabaya. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.2%.

Bhayangkara FC vs Persebaya Surabaya Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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