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Pusamania Borneo vs Persija Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Pusamania Borneo

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Persija

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.8%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.4%1-112.0%1-27.0%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.2%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.1%3-14.7%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 39.2% 2.55 +18.6%

Draw 24.2% 29.0% 3.45 -9.9%

Away win 29.3% 41.7% 2.40 -17.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.8%

BTTS 55.3% 64.5% 1.55 -14.3%

Home O1.5 41.8% 46.5% 2.15 -10.1%

Away O1.5 33.2% 47.6% 2.10 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -55.8%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.3%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 8.0%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pusamania Borneo1.5

Persija1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PUSAMANIA BORNEO · PPG 2.29

PERSIJA · PPG 1.82

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pusamania Borneo (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +18.6%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.9%

Persija (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pusamania Borneo face Persija in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pusamania Borneo a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Persija 29%, so Pusamania Borneo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Pusamania Borneo and 1.2 for Persija (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pusamania Borneo are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.82 for Persija. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +9.7%.

Pusamania Borneo vs Persija Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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