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Persib Bandung vs PSM Makassar Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 12:00

Persib Bandung

PPG 2.32 · HOME

UPCOMING

PSM Makassar

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.6%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.4%1-111.9%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.3%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.2%3-14.9%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 71.4% 1.40 -34.9%

Draw 24.2% 25.0% 4.00 -1.9%

Away win 29.3% 15.4% 6.50 +54.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 57.1% 1.75 -5.9%

Over 3.5 31.7% 35.3% 2.83 -10.3%

BTTS 55.6% 52.4% 1.91 +6.2%

Home O1.5 46.3% 64.5% 1.55 -28.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 21.3% 4.70 +56.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -55.8%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.6%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persib Bandung1.6

PSM Makassar1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSIB BANDUNG · PPG 2.32

PSM MAKASSAR · PPG 1.14

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

53%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Persib Bandung (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -34.9%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.9%

PSM Makassar (A) 29.3%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +54.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persib Bandung face PSM Makassar in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persib Bandung a 47% chance, the draw 24% and PSM Makassar 29%, so Persib Bandung are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Persib Bandung and 1.1 for PSM Makassar (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persib Bandung are averaging 2.32 points per game versus 1.14 for PSM Makassar. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +78.1%.

Persib Bandung vs PSM Makassar Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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