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Persik Kediri vs Dewa United Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 08:30

Persik Kediri

PPG 1.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dewa United

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-17.6%0-24.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.0%1-111.9%1-27.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.3%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.1%3-14.8%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 32.3% 3.10 +44.1%

Draw 24.2% 28.6% 3.50 -9.2%

Away win 29.3% 48.8% 2.05 -24.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.8%

BTTS 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

Home O1.5 45.9% 40.8% 2.45 +12.5%

Away O1.5 33.8% 54.1% 1.85 -37.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -55.8%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.0%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persik Kediri1.6

Dewa United1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSIK KEDIRI · PPG 1.64

DEWA UNITED · PPG 1.44

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Persik Kediri (H) 46.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +44.1%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.2%

Dewa United (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -24.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persik Kediri face Dewa United in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persik Kediri a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Dewa United 29%, so Persik Kediri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Persik Kediri and 1.2 for Dewa United (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persik Kediri are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.44 for Dewa United. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +37.1%.

Persik Kediri vs Dewa United Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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