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Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:30

Neftchi Baku

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWL ··

UPCOMING

Safa Baku

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWL ··

// Model verdict

Home 72% chance

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-17.2%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.2%1-111.7%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.5%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.8%3-15.1%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 80.0% 1.25 -33.3%

Draw 24.4% 20.8% 4.80 +10.3%

Away win 22.1% 9.1% 11.00 +85.9%

Over 2.5 50.6% 55.6% 1.80 -8.9%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 50.4% 48.8% 2.05 +3.3%

Home O1.5 48.1% 75.2% 1.33 -36.0%

Away O1.5 25.6% 16.1% 6.20 +35.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.4%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 2–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neftchi Baku1.6

Safa Baku0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NEFTCHI BAKU · PPG 1.75

SAFA BAKU · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

72%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Neftchi Baku (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -33.3%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +10.3%

Safa Baku (A) 22.1%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +85.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neftchi Baku face Safa Baku in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neftchi Baku a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Safa Baku 22%, so Neftchi Baku are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Neftchi Baku and 0.9 for Safa Baku (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neftchi Baku are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.50 for Safa Baku. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +100.7%.

Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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