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Sabah FA vs Zira Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:30

Sabah FA

PPG 2.09 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Zira

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-19.8%0-26.0%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.3%1-112.7%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-18.3%2-25.1%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.9%3-13.6%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 55.6% 1.80 -33.6%

Draw 27.2% 30.8% 3.25 -7.0%

Away win 35.8% 25.0% 4.00 +43.2%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.8% 3.25 -4.0%

BTTS 52.9% 54.6% 1.83 -3.2%

Home O1.5 38.4% 51.8% 1.93 -25.9%

Away O1.5 36.8% 27.3% 3.66 +34.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sabah FA1.3

Zira1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SABAH FA · PPG 2.09

ZIRA · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sabah FA (H) 36.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -33.6%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.0%

Zira (A) 35.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +43.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sabah FA face Zira in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sabah FA a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Zira 36%, so Sabah FA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sabah FA and 1.2 for Zira (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sabah FA are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.50 for Zira. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +34.7%.

Sabah FA vs Zira Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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