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Qarabag vs Araz Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:15

Qarabag

PPG 2.09 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Araz

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLL ··

// Model verdict

Home 80% chance

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-14.7%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.1%1-19.7%1-24.2%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.9%2-24.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.7%3-16.7%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-15.5%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.1% 87.0% 1.15 -28.6%

Draw 22.0% 16.7% 6.00 +19.2%

Away win 15.9% 6.7% 15.00 +83.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 69.4% 1.44 -22.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 50.0% 2.00 -36.6%

BTTS 50.0% 44.4% 2.25 +12.5%

Home O1.5 57.9% 80.0% 1.25 -27.6%

Away O1.5 25.0% 15.4% 6.50 +37.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.0%

H 62% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 1–1 9.7%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qarabag2.0

Araz0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

QARABAG · PPG 2.09

ARAZ · PPG 1.01

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

80%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.17 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Qarabag (H) 62.1%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV -28.6%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +19.2%

Araz (A) 15.9%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +83.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qarabag face Araz in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qarabag a 62% chance, the draw 22% and Araz 16%, so Qarabag are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Qarabag and 0.9 for Araz (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qarabag are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.01 for Araz. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +91.8%.

Qarabag vs Araz Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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