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Jeonbuk vs Gwangju Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 12 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 05:00

Jeonbuk

PPG 1.80 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gwangju

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=59.0%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.1%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.3%1-18.9%1-23.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.2%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.8%3-17.0%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-16.2%4+-22.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.0% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 16.7% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 34.3% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -30.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 59% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.2%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeonbuk2.2

Gwangju0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 34.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JEONBUK · PPG 1.80

GWANGJU · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=59.0%

Win probability 1X2

Jeonbuk (H) 59.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gwangju (A) 16.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeonbuk face Gwangju in South-Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeonbuk a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Gwangju 17%, so Jeonbuk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Jeonbuk and 0.8 for Gwangju (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeonbuk are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.33 for Gwangju. This match finished 4-0.

Jeonbuk vs Gwangju Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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