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San Martin S.J. vs Midland Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 28 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:30

San Martin S.J.

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWW

UPCOMING

Midland

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWL

// Model verdict

Home 50% chance

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-19.3%0-23.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.1%1-112.3%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.4%2-18.2%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.0%3-13.6%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 50.0% 2.00 +1.4%

Draw 27.1% 34.5% 2.90 -12.8%

Away win 22.2% 25.6% 3.90 -8.1%

Over 2.5 42.7% 34.7% 2.88 +23.0%

Over 3.5 20.9% 15.4% 6.50 +21.5%

BTTS 48.0% 43.5% 2.30 +10.4%

Home O1.5 38.8% 38.2% 2.62 +1.7%

Away O1.5 18.8% 20.0% 5.00 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 296 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -6.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 51% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.1%

#2 0–0 12.9%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martin S.J.1.3

Midland0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTIN S.J. · PPG 1.73

MIDLAND · PPG 0.85

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Martin S.J. (H) 50.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +1.4%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.8%

Midland (A) 22.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martin S.J. face Midland in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martin S.J. a 51% chance, the draw 27% and Midland 22%, so San Martin S.J. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for San Martin S.J. and 0.7 for Midland (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martin S.J. are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.85 for Midland. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +24.9%.

San Martin S.J. vs Midland Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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